Researchers develop model to forecast landslide risk in Styria

A research team at Joanneum Research is developing a model to make landslide risk more predictable by combining weather forecasts with geological and other data, ORF reports. The team expects to produce its first visualisations by the end of 2026.

Heavy rain can quickly saturate soil and sharply increase the danger of landslides. Whether a slope actually moves also depends on factors including geology, soil moisture, vegetation and land use.

The project, called ALaDyn, is led by Margit Kurka, head of geology and natural hazards at Joanneum Research Digital. It is being carried out with the University of Graz’s Institute of Geography and Regional Science and an engineering consultancy.

Unlike existing hazard maps, which show where landslides are generally possible but make little use of current weather conditions, the planned model will combine records of past landslides with current weather, satellite, geological and topographical data. Its dynamic hazard maps would update the risk assessment with each new weather forecast.

The project runs until June 2027. The first visualisations are expected in an app, but Joanneum Research says this will be a research prototype, not an operational early-warning system. Municipalities, disaster response services, the state geology department, road authorities and infrastructure operators such as ÖBB are being involved in the development.

The methods could eventually be applied to other natural hazards, including rockfalls and deep-seated slope movements. The team is also considering further research into high-resolution weather data, soil moisture, landslide runout and AI-based modelling.

Heavy rain in August 2023 led to 935 reported landslides in Styria. The state allocated about 12 million euros for immediate measures to address the worst damage.