Bavaria’s job market shows signs of stabilising

Bavaria had 330,844 people registered as unemployed in mid-September, 3,237 fewer than a month earlier, BR reported. The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2 per cent, the lowest among Germany’s states.

The rate is now level with a year earlier for the first time in a long while. Markus Schmitz, head of Bavaria’s employment agencies, said this suggested that stabilisation was in sight. The rise in unemployment had at least slowed, he told BR24. But he remained concerned that the number of employees paying social insurance contributions continued to edge down, partly as large post-war generations left the workforce.

Oberpfalz bucks the trend

The number of employees rose slightly in Oberpfalz, bucking the wider trend. Along with Niederbayern and Schwaben, the administrative district has Bavaria’s lowest unemployment rate, at 3.9 per cent. Employment agencies said joblessness had fallen particularly sharply in the city of Amberg, as well as in Landshut and the district of Straubing-Bogen. They attributed the declines mainly to improved orders for construction companies.

Schmitz said the job market was also stabilising in Oberbayern, despite job cuts at major carmakers. He said the defence industry was expanding in Munich, offering hope, though it could offset only some of the losses. The unemployment rate is 4.2 per cent across Oberbayern, matching the state average; in Munich it is 5.7 per cent. That is the lowest rate among Germany’s cities with more than one million residents.

Schwaben’s job market was described as particularly stable. Employment losses in mechanical engineering and recently at battery maker Varta in Nördlingen were regularly offset by small and medium-sized craft and industrial businesses, according to the article. The region was also benefiting from growth in the defence industry, particularly aircraft manufacturing.

Franken faces growing difficulties

Mittelfranken remains the weakest-performing administrative district, with an unemployment rate of 4.8 per cent. The figure is driven largely by the 7.4 per cent rate in Nuremberg. That rate has recently fallen, which employment agencies attributed to active labour-market policies, particularly training programmes.

The district of Roth now has Bavaria’s lowest unemployment rate, at 2.4 per cent. Elsewhere, rates below 3 per cent are currently recorded only in eight districts in southern Bavaria and the district of Bamberg in Oberfranken. The highest rate in the state is 8.2 per cent in the city of Hof.

Schmitz said high unemployment in Hof and the wider northeast of Oberfranken reflected a failure to advance the economic transition, particularly the shift from combustion-engine technology to electric mobility.

Employment agencies say Oberfranken and Unterfranken need more structural policy support. They called for political help in places including Aschaffenburg, where unemployment is 8.1 per cent, and Schweinfurt, where it is 7.6 per cent. Schmitz said universities, technology-transfer centres and start-up centres should work together to help generate new business ideas. He said Unterfranken had ground to make up compared with other parts of Bavaria. Its unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points, unlike the state average.

Although a turnaround is not yet in sight, employment agencies expect significant challenges in meeting demand for skilled workers. The number of employees paying social insurance contributions had recently fallen to 5.93 million across Bavaria.