Expert says warning signs can prevent planned mass killings

Amok attacks are usually planned over time and often preceded by warning signs, criminologist Britta Bannenberg told SRF. Her comments come more than a week after a man opened fire at a techno party in Aarau, killing a woman and injuring several people.

Aargau cantonal police classified the shooting at the Aarau rave as an “amok scenario” at a news conference last Wednesday. Bannenberg has researched such attacks for more than 20 years.

Warning signs often appear months in advance

Amok attacks are planned multiple killings rather than spontaneous acts, Bannenberg said. Perpetrators may think about killing many people for years, often driven by a strong grudge against society or specific groups. They typically begin concrete preparations about eight weeks before the attack.

More than 90 percent of perpetrators are male and all show signs of psychopathology, she said. Among adult perpetrators, about one third have untreated paranoid schizophrenia, while the others have personality disorders, including a lack of empathy, pronounced narcissism and extreme sensitivity to perceived insults.

Bannenberg said perpetrators commonly believe they are entitled to commit such violence and seek media attention. Their actions cannot be explained rationally, she said.

Prevention depends on connecting clues

Amok attacks can sometimes be distinguished from terrorism because terrorists pursue a clear ideological or religious objective. However, Bannenberg said there are also mixed cases involving hatred of society or particular groups combined with far-right or Islamist motives.

The motives are less important for prevention than the warning signs, she said. Almost all perpetrators give indications beforehand, often for months, in their social environment, online or in forums. The crucial question is who notices the signs, connects them and informs the police.

Bannenberg said she assumed that many attacks had already been prevented. She added that police could further improve their threat assessment when suspicions are reported. Psychiatric services in German-speaking countries should also be better prepared to respond when patients may pose a danger to others.

She said it could ultimately come down to chance whether warnings are recognised. Amok attacks are rare, and many perpetrators die during their attacks, leaving researchers with a limited database.

People unsettled by the Aarau shooting should remain alert at large gatherings but should not be afraid, Bannenberg said. Killings in other circumstances, such as relationship conflicts, are much more common.