Eight contenders complicate SVP’s Federal Council ticket choice

The Swiss People’s Party (SVP) faces five key questions as it decides who will make its ticket for a seat on Switzerland’s Federal Council, according to an analysis by SRF’s Dominik Meier. Eight people have been named, but faction leader Thomas Aeschi says he may still withdraw, leaving the field at six men and one woman.

Aeschi’s “half-candidacy”

The SVP section in Zug nominated Aeschi, but he plans to wait several weeks before deciding whether to run. He appears interested in becoming a federal councillor only if he believes he has a realistic chance. He lost a Federal Council election 11 years ago and wants to avoid another defeat.

Aeschi is gauging support among other parties. SRF’s analysis says he is unlikely to win votes from the left and is polarising among other conservative parties, although many value his reliability. His home canton of Zug already has Martin Pfister on the Federal Council. If Aeschi enters the race, pressure within the SVP to include him on the ticket would be strong.

A large field, but few leading figures

The SVP has received many refusals, including from Esther Friedli and Franz Grüter. The party’s Zurich section has not put forward a candidate. Still, its size and growing number of cantonal government members have helped it avoid an embarrassing shortage of names. Jean-Pierre Gallati, Franz Ruppen and Pierre Alain Schnegg are among the candidates SRF describes as serious contenders. Rémy Wyssmann, by contrast, is seen as having limited chances.

Will French-speaking Switzerland get a place?

SVP sections in French-speaking Switzerland are demanding a place on the ticket. Schnegg’s candidacy has improved their chances by offering an alternative to Céline Amaudruz, whose candidacy is not universally popular. But a place is not guaranteed, as the party is dominated by German-speaking Switzerland.

How many candidates will be on the ticket?

A three-person ticket would leave room for a candidate from French-speaking Switzerland and more than one from German-speaking Switzerland. It could also revive the SVP’s 2015 arrangement, when Guy Parmelin represented French-speaking Switzerland, Aeschi represented German-speaking Switzerland and Norman Gobbi represented Ticino.

But adding a name gives other parties more choice in the election and reduces the SVP’s control over the outcome, factors the party is likely to consider.

Who will play the tactics best?

With eight potential candidates, the SVP parliamentary group has several ways to shape its ticket. It could, for example, put a hardliner such as Michael Graber on a two-person ticket, in the expectation that the other candidate would then be elected.

Such tactics are difficult to control because the group votes by secret ballot over several rounds. Previous votes have produced surprises and unintended outcomes.