Swiss poll finds close races and strong support for fireworks initiative

A new SRG poll suggests three of four proposals going to a vote on 29 November would face close contests, while the fireworks initiative has a clear lead. SRF reports that if the vote had been held on 11 October, voters would have opposed the recommendations of the Federal Council and parliament on three proposals.

The poll found a narrow lead for opponents of the proposal to fund the 13th AHV pension through a value-added tax increase: 49% said they would reject it or were leaning towards rejection. GFS Bern said the opposing side had more firm voting intentions, but noted that opinion formation was still limited and the outcome remained open.

Views on the AHV proposal varied by age. Among voters aged 18 to 39, 56% opposed it and 35% supported it. Voters aged 40 to 64 were almost evenly divided, with 47% in favour and 49% against. Among those aged 65 and over, 55% supported the proposal.

The fireworks initiative had the strongest support, with its backers holding a lead of 40 percentage points as the main campaign phase began. Support was a majority among voters of every political party, ranging from 91% among Green Party supporters to 53% among Swiss People’s Party supporters. The poll also found support among 76% of women and 60% of men. GFS Bern said arguments about the environment, animal welfare and safety appeared to resonate more than arguments about personal freedom.

The Centre party’s initiative against the marriage penalty had the support of 55% of eligible voters. However, many were undecided, suggesting that views were not yet settled. Support was higher among married people and those in registered partnerships, at 65%, than among single people, at 41%.

On amendments to the War Material Act, 49% said they would vote yes, leaving the proposal ahead but without an absolute majority. A substantial share of voters remained undecided. Support stood at 53% in German-speaking Switzerland and 38% in French-speaking Switzerland.

GFS Bern conducted the poll for SRG SSR from 5 to 18 October, with 11 October as the midpoint of the survey period. It analysed responses from 14,874 eligible voters. The stated margin of error was 2.8 percentage points. The sample included 506 people interviewed by phone, 13,853 online participants and 515 people recruited through social media. The online and social media participants were self-selected, and their responses were weighted by factors including location, age, gender and political views.