Expert sees close race in Salzburg state election

A survey commissioned by the Austrian People’s Party puts it narrowly ahead of the Freedom Party in Salzburg, while political scientist Armin Mühlböck of the University of Salzburg says the race is currently too close to call, ORF reported.

The ÖVP is polling at about 29 percent, compared with 28 percent for the FPÖ. Because of the survey’s margin of error, Mühlböck said it was not possible to determine which party was currently ahead.

“It will be a head-to-head race, one on equal terms,” Mühlböck said, referring to the contest between the two leading politicians, Edtstadler and Svazek, ahead of the election in around 18 months.

SPÖ may be underestimated

Mühlböck said the Social Democratic Party had recently reorganised under its new leader, Peter Eder. At the same time, the Communist Party had lost Kay-Michael Dankl, its leading figure at state level.

“The Communist Party is somewhat overestimated in the survey, while the Social Democrats are somewhat underestimated. But that is just a gut feeling,” he said.

Government satisfaction rises

The survey also found that 52 percent of respondents were rather or very satisfied with the state government. That represents a six percentage point increase since the last state election.

Mühlböck said voters were still concerned about housing, transport, migration, rising prices and healthcare, much as they were in 2023. But he said the current satisfaction with the government meant there was no sign of the mood for change seen before the previous election.

Following that election, the Greens had to leave their coalition with the ÖVP.

The survey does not yet reflect the effects of the current reshuffle in the state government, including the departure of Stefan Schnöll. Mühlböck also said public opinion in Salzburg could change quickly before the election.

The survey was conducted by Demox Research for the ÖVP among 800 people. It puts the ÖVP at 28 to 29 percent and the FPÖ at 27 to 28 percent. The other parties are each projected to achieve results roughly similar to those in the previous state election. The survey has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.