FPÖ narrows ÖVP lead to five points in Lower Austria

The ÖVP remains the strongest party in Lower Austria, but the FPÖ has reached a record 30 percent and could form a state parliament majority with the SPÖ, according to a poll commissioned by ORF Lower Austria.

The survey, conducted by the Institute for Demoscopy and Data Analysis, puts the ÖVP at 35 percent in the question of how people would vote in a state election held on Sunday. The FPÖ follows on 30 percent, ahead of the SPÖ on 19 percent, the Greens on nine percent and NEOS on five percent. Two percent would choose another party.

Compared with the 2023 state election, the ÖVP would fall from 39.9 percent to 35 percent. The FPÖ would rise from 24.2 percent to a historic high of 30 percent. The SPÖ would decline slightly from 20.7 percent, while the Greens would gain from 7.6 percent. NEOS would fall from 6.7 percent.

FPÖ and SPÖ could win majority

The two parties would receive 49 percent between them. According to pollster Christoph Haselmayer, the result could give the FPÖ and SPÖ a joint majority in the state parliament for the first time.

“It would be extremely narrow, but together they could appoint the governor without the Austrian People’s Party,” Haselmayer said.

The poll surveyed 1,098 eligible voters in Lower Austria aged 16 and over between July 27 and August 7. It was conducted by telephone with 400 respondents and online with 698. The margin of error was up to three percentage points. Among those who named a party in the voting question, the margin of error was up to 3.4 percentage points.

Unlike at federal level, Lower Austria uses a power-sharing system in which parties are represented in the state government according to their strength in the state parliament. Based on the poll, the FPÖ and SPÖ could therefore hold a joint majority in both bodies for the first time.

Few voters favour FPÖ and SPÖ cooperation

The possibility of such a partnership does not mean voters want it. Only eight percent favour cooperation between the FPÖ and SPÖ in the state government. Thirty-five percent prefer cooperation between the ÖVP and FPÖ, which has governed Lower Austria since the last state election, while 32 percent favour the ÖVP and SPÖ. One quarter gave no answer.

Haselmayer said the low support for an FPÖ-SPÖ partnership was partly because a majority without the ÖVP had previously been difficult to imagine in Lower Austria. The possibility of a governor from another party had not yet entered many people’s thinking, he said.

Most support current ÖVP-FPÖ partnership

A majority of respondents view the current cooperation between the ÖVP and FPÖ positively. Eleven percent are very satisfied and 49 percent fairly satisfied, giving the partnership an overall approval rating of 60 percent. Eighteen percent are fairly dissatisfied and 17 percent very dissatisfied. Five percent gave no answer.

In a hypothetical direct election for governor, 40 percent would choose incumbent Johanna Mikl-Leitner of the ÖVP. FPÖ state leader and deputy governor Udo Landbauer would receive 30 percent, while SPÖ state leader and state councillor Sven Hergovich would receive 20 percent. Green state spokesperson Helga Krismer would receive six percent and NEOS state spokesperson Indra Collini four percent.

Health has also overtaken rising prices as the issue most concerning people in Lower Austria. Twenty-three percent name the health system and access to doctors as the most important issue, followed by prices, inflation and affordable living on 19 percent. Migration, asylum and integration receive 12 percent, while the economy and labour market receive 10 percent.