Researchers warn of rising wildfire risk across Austria

Wildfires are expected to increase steadily in Austria, with the risk also rising in areas that have so far been less affected, ORF reported Wednesday, citing researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Lower Austria.

A large wildfire in the Föhrenwald forest near St. Egyden am Steinfeld, in the Neunkirchen district, was extinguished only after several days on Sunday. The fire was started by ammunition remnants from the Second World War and spread rapidly because of extreme drought.

Florian Kraxner of the institute said the fire showed how climate change was altering conditions. The connection with climate change was “clear”, he said. Known high-risk areas will remain particularly affected, while new risk zones could emerge.

Wildfires up by 50 percent this year

About 270 forest fires have been recorded in Austria so far this year, almost 50 percent more than during the same period last year. Around five times as much forest has already burned as in an average year.

Kraxner said a “constant increase” in wildfires could be expected in the medium term. Heat and drought create conditions that allow fires to spread more easily. Although this summer is an extreme year, he said, the overall trend is clear.

Researchers from several Austrian institutions are contributing to the analysis. The University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences records forest fires, GeoSphere Austria produces short-term forecasts of wildfire risk, and the institute in Laxenburg uses models to examine how the risk could develop over the long term.

Lower Austria among the areas most at risk

Lower Austria is a particular focus of the research project Austria Fire Futures, which examines possible future wildfire areas. “Where fires have always occurred, there will be even more fires,” Kraxner said. The findings particularly affect parts of Lower Austria and Tyrol.

The Föhrenwald fire demonstrated the existing danger. Ammunition from the Second World War causes fires in the area almost every year, according to Kraxner. Under the current extremely dry conditions, however, the latest fire was able to spread much further.

Pine forests are considered especially vulnerable because dry soil and highly flammable needles can help fires spread. Firefighters in Lower Austria have repeatedly responded to large forest fires in recent years.

In October 2021, more than 100 hectares of forest burned near Hirschwang an der Rax in the Neunkirchen district, in what was described as the largest forest fire in Austria’s history. About 9,000 emergency workers were involved.

New risk zones along the Danube

The researchers’ calculations indicate that wildfire risk could also rise in areas that have previously been less affected. Kraxner cited the region along the Danube between Vienna and Bratislava as an example.

Increasing drought could lead to lower water levels, including in side channels of the Danube. This would reduce the amount of moisture reaching surrounding land, allowing combustible material to dry out further. The likelihood of fires in the region is therefore expected to increase in the coming years, Kraxner said.

The future risk will depend partly on temperatures, precipitation, vegetation and the course of climate change. The Alpine region and Central Europe are warming comparatively quickly.

Kraxner described this summer as a warning sign and said the heat and record drought could increase awareness of the growing risks. He also questioned whether policymakers were taking sufficiently forward-looking steps towards decarbonisation, particularly as the 1.5 degree target is being missed.

Given the current damage to agriculture and calls for financial support, Kraxner asked how often such aid packages could be provided in the future. “We cannot even afford environmental and climate protection,” he said.