Marriage tax initiative leads narrowly in first poll

The initiative against the marriage tax penalty has a narrow lead ahead of Switzerland’s November 29 vote, according to the first SRG poll, conducted by GFS Bern and reported by SRF. Fifty-five per cent of eligible voters said they would definitely or probably support it, while 34 per cent said they would reject it. Eleven per cent have not yet made up their minds.

The initiative was launched by a cross-party committee. Opponents warn that it could be difficult to implement and lead to two tax systems operating alongside each other. The campaign is entering its main phase around seven weeks before the vote.

How the initiative would change taxation

Married and unmarried couples are currently taxed differently. Voters approved individual taxation on March 8, 2026. It is due to take effect at the start of 2032, requiring each person, including married people, to file a separate tax return.

The initiative, titled “Yes to fair federal taxes for married couples”, would retain joint taxation for married couples for direct federal tax. Their incomes would continue to be combined, and they would not be placed at a disadvantage compared with other taxpayers. Parliament would have three years to implement the proposal. If no law were in force by 2030, married couples would receive two tax assessments, one joint and one calculated under the rules for unmarried people, and pay the lower amount.

Depending on how it is implemented, the federal government estimates annual tax revenue would fall by between 680 million and 3 billion Swiss francs. The Federal Council and Parliament recommend rejecting the initiative.

Support varies by party and relationship status

Opinion formation is still at an early stage, leaving room for both sides to make their case, said Corina Schena, a political scientist at GFS Bern. Support is strongest among sympathisers of the Centre party. Sixty-four per cent of Swiss People’s Party supporters would back the initiative, as would 52 per cent of those aligned with the FDP. Support stands at 40 per cent among both Social Democratic Party and Green supporters, and at 45 per cent among Green Liberal supporters. The left-wing parties also have a relatively high share of undecided voters, at 15 per cent.

Married people and those in registered partnerships are considerably more likely to support the proposal than single people. “Personal impact plays a major role,” Schena said. Support is also higher in rural areas, at 67 per cent, than in urban areas, at 51 per cent. Schena said the conservative, pro-initiative camp still had room to build support in rural areas. Among voters aged 18 to 39, 16 per cent remain undecided.

Arguments draw more support than the initiative

The strongest support among the arguments for the proposal is for the view that the state should not use taxation to favour one way of life. Sixty-nine per cent agree with that argument.

Opponents’ arguments have drawn less support. Fifty-one per cent agree that the initiative could create different tax systems at federal and cantonal levels, while 40 per cent share the concern that it would lead to substantial revenue losses. Around one in five respondents could not assess each of the three arguments against the initiative, suggesting its possible effects remain unfamiliar or difficult to judge.

“The arguments against it have not yet reached the public, while the arguments for it have,” Schena said. She will be watching whether opponents increasingly argue that the proposal overlaps with individual taxation, saying that could indicate growing opposition. Support for the arguments in favour is higher than current voting intention, which could point to a rising yes vote, she said. However, initiatives have historically tended to be rejected, and it remains uncertain whether this proposal can maintain its lead.

The SRG poll was commissioned from GFS Bern and conducted between October 5 and 18, 2026. The midpoint of the survey period was October 11.