SVP set for record result as Swiss left-wing parties gain

Switzerland’s Swiss People’s Party would win a record 29.9 per cent of the vote if federal elections were held now, while the left-wing bloc would also gain support, according to a new election barometer commissioned by SRG and reported by SRF.

The poll, conducted by Sotomo, puts the SVP two percentage points ahead of its previous result and above its 2015 record of 29.4 per cent. Political scientist Michael Hermann said the party remained the clear winner, although its gains were smaller than in the barometer a year ago.

The Centre and the FDP are forecast to lose a combined 2.5 percentage points. The Centre would fall 1.5 points from the 2023 election to 12.6 per cent, while the FDP would drop one point to 13.3 per cent, its lowest projected share in National Council elections. Hermann said the FDP was ahead of the Centre in the contest for third place, a ranking that matters when parties make claims to seats in the Federal Council.

The two parties together would hold just under 26 per cent of the vote, down from more than 40 per cent for their predecessor parties in the early 1990s. The figure contrasts with their current strength in the Council of States, where the Centre and FDP together hold nearly 60 per cent of seats, compared with 13 per cent for the SVP.

The left-wing bloc would gain 1.5 percentage points overall. The Social Democrats are projected to win 19.3 per cent, their strongest showing in nearly two decades, while the Greens would reach 10.3 per cent, up 0.5 points. Hermann said the figures did not amount to a green wave, despite the hot summer of 2026.

Concern about climate change has risen, with the share of voters naming it as one of the country’s most important political challenges up nine percentage points in a year. But the Greens and the Green Liberal Party have so far benefited only modestly. The Green Liberals are projected to lose 0.5 points, leaving them at 7.1 per cent. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 1.2 percentage points.

About two-thirds of SVP voters said they were already very certain of their choice. The figure was slightly more than half among Social Democrat and Green voters, while supporters of parties between those political poles were less certain. A clear left-right divide also appeared in expectations about the election outcome: a majority of Social Democrat and Green voters were pessimistic, compared with a quarter of FDP voters.